Real Estate News
More S. Fla. Homeowners Gaining Home Equity
The market slowed a bit nationally, but not in S. Fla., which is seeing slower, yet positive home value gains. About 2 out of 3 homeowners (65.3%) are “equity rich.”
MIAMI – Homeowners across South Florida are seeing equity gains in their homes, despite the national housing market slowing down.
About 65.3% of residential properties with a mortgage in South Florida are considered “equity rich,” in the first quarter of this year, according to a report from ATTOM Data, a provider of nationwide property data.
To find how many properties were still building equity, researchers looked at mortgaged residential properties in the area with different levels of loan-to-value ratios. For a property to be “equity rich,” the combined estimated loan amount was no more than 50% of their estimated market value, meaning that the owner had at least 50% equity.
The data shows a steady uptick from the prior two quarters in the tri-county area: For the fourth quarter of 2022, about 64.5% of homes were equity rich, and in the third quarter of 2022, about 63% of homes were equity rich.
Here is a breakdown by county:
South Florida’s continued rise in equity can be attributed to its population growth, as out-of-state buyers have flocked to the area, fleeing larger metropolitan areas with higher housing costs.
“Our population growth is keeping our real estate values up because people are just eating through whatever limited amount of inventory we have left,” said Whitney Dutton with the Dutton Group in downtown Fort Lauderdale. “When they sell their house for a million and see what they can get down here for a million, they say, ‘I’ll take it, since it’s more house than what I am used to. They bump up the resale value of homes.”
On a national level, however, there were small decreases in the amount of homes that could be considered “equity-rich,” the report noted. In the first quarter of 2023, about 47.2% of homes with a mortgage were equity-rich, a slight decrease from the previous quarter when about 48% were equity-rich.
“The equity downturn, small as it was, stood as the latest indicator of how a decline in home prices across much of the country has started to affect homeowners following a decade-long market boom. It comes as home-seller profits have slid to their lowest point in two years,” the report noted.
For South Florida, it’s unlikely that equity gains will decrease as the market is still projected to see increases over the next year.
“We may see a 3-5% bump in property values in the next year, so that will affect equity. We won’t see the double digits we saw over the past few years, but price increases will be more stabilized,” added Dutton. “The southeast of the country is projected to be one of the hottest places in terms of population growth, and people need a place to live. They are going to continue to buy real estate here.”
© 2023 South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
Floridians Leave Cities for Affordable Housing
As out-of-state and international buyers focused on Miami and other cities, more residents of those cities headed to Fla.’s smaller and more affordable towns.
MIAMI – Florida’s population grew by 416,754 last year, with a whopping 318,855 of those migrating from other states, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Many of the new residents made a bee-line to major metropolitan areas like Miami-Dade, Tampa and Orlando, adding to congestion and traffic.
But they also helped create a domino effect.
Some already living in Florida’s largest metros said they had enough of the congestion and high costs and looked to move to less crowded areas, like Manatee County.
“We are absolutely seeing that,” said Kristine Smale, senior vice president of Zonda, which provides data and insight to the housing and development industry.
‘Parrish area is absolutely exploding’
Prime areas for Miami residents looking to relocate include Port St. Lucie, Naples, Fort Myers and Bradenton-Sarasota – particularly Lakewood Ranch and Parrish.
“The Parrish area is absolutely exploding. There are more lots under development for housing in the Manatee-Sarasota area than in the Tampa area,” Smale said.
An estimated 37,000 residential lots are under development in the Bradenton-Sarasota area, compared to an estimated 22,000 lots in all of Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando counties, Smale said.
Factors on the exits from Miami include not only the crowding but some of the highest housing price increases in the United States, Smale said.
Not that Bradenton doesn’t have its own affordable housing issues.
Among Florida cities, only Miami-Dade – the most competitive rental market in the United States – and Orlando, which ranked third on the list, were more competitive than Southwest Florida, which ranks 11th, RentCafe.com, a nationwide apartment search website, reported in January.
In-state migration
Florida was the fastest-growing state in the country in 2022, with a 1.9% population increase, bringing the population to 22,244,823.
Although the rate of increase is not expected to continue indefinitely, the influx of new residents has brought more young people to the state and helped fuel the growth of more high-wage jobs, Smale said.
John Boyd, principal of the Boca Raton-based The Boyd Company, which provides recommendations on corporate site selection, said there are a number of factors contributing to the in-state movement of residents. In Miami, it’s because the area has become one of the least affordable housing markets in the United States, fueled by second-home buyers, the trend of homes being converted into vacation rentals and investment properties, and equity firms buying up housing stock.
In the aftermath of the Surfside condominium collapse in June 2021, the Florida Legislature passed a law requiring condo associations to have sufficient reserve funding to make routine structural inspections and repairs.
Where does money come for condo reserves? Out of the pockets of individual condo owners.
The largest concentration of condos in the state are in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, Boyd said. Other factors in the cost of living include fast-rising costs for property and auto insurance.
Although Bradenton and Sarasota have not been immune to the same economic headwinds, the cost of living is about 19% cheaper than in the Miami area, Boyd said.
The ‘sweet spot’
The Interstate 75 corridor from Naples to Tampa is an economic “sweet spot,” Boyd said.
Development of Allegiant airline’s Sunseeker Resort in Charlotte Harbor, which suffered millions of dollars of damage from Hurricane Ian, is back on track and will have a powerful impact on Southwest Florida, helping attract more second homebuyers, Boyd said. The resort is expected to open in October.
Other areas in Florida which are attracting residents from more congested cities include Lake Mary, Lake Nona and Gainesville, Boyd said.
The arrival of Brightline train service between Orlando and Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale and Miami will also help people move from more congested areas, he said. The link to Orlando is expected to open later this year. Having more mass transit, such as Brightline, is appealing to Florida transplants from New York, Massachusetts and other highly populated areas.
“It’s in their DNA,” Boyd said.
While the national economy remains a concern with inflation and high interest rates, the future for Southwest Florida looks bright, he said.
Bradenton benefits from proximity to Tampa
“Tampa has emerged as a major global tech market and is a huge engine of economic activity. Few markets in the United States can compete with what Southwest Florida brings to the table,” he said. “If you are looking for a positive economic indicator, Sarasota Bradenton International Airport is the fastest-growing airport in the country,” Boyd said.
Lakewood Ranch still growing
Lakewood Ranch recently reported that it closed the first quarter of 2023 with 580 sales, a 17% increase over the same quarter in 2022. In March, builders reported 236 sales, which was a 33% increase over the same month in 2022, as well as a 33% gain over February of 2023. The average price was $748,481.
“Florida is still seeing a great deal of in-migration from other states, but more recently, the Ranch has been experiencing increasing moves from within Florida, mostly from high-priced, congested regions,” Laura Cole, senior vice president of LWR Communities, LLC, said in a press release.
Those top Florida feeder markets to Lakewood Ranch include Miami, Tampa and Orlando, she said.
Manatee County grew by 29,420 residents in three years as of July 2, 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau estimate. Since 2010, Manatee County has added 106,292 residents with a total of 429,125 people as of the 2022 estimate.
© 2023 Miami Herald. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
Out-of-Town Moves Didn’t End with Pandemic
Number of buyers looking within their metro dropped 15.6% in 1Q, but the number looking elsewhere fell only 4.2%. Fla. has 5 of top 10 want-to-move-to metros.
SEATTLE – The pandemic-era trend of buyers relocating greater distances didn’t end with the pandemic. While Redfin says searches on its website were down overall in the first quarter (1Q) of 2023, the number searching for a home outside their current metro was down only 4.2% compared to a drop of 15.6% of buyers seeking something else near their current location.
During the pandemic, both of those numbers shot up – but the out-of-state mover numbers shot up more.
The reasons for long-distance relocations have changed a bit, though. Many out-of-state moves took place during the pandemic because workers were no longer tied to an office and commute. More recently, a drive for affordable housing has become more important. Relatively affordable places are some of the nation’s most popular destinations.
And of the top 10 move-to cities cited by Redfin for 1Q, five are in Florida.
Looking at the trend another way, house hunters moving to a new area make up a bigger piece of the homebuying pie than ever. A record one-quarter (25.1%) of Redfin.com home searchers looked to relocate to a new metro in the first quarter. That’s up from 22.8% a year earlier and around 18% before the pandemic.
Top 10 move-to U.S. metros, 1Q year-to-year
Popularity is determined by net inflow – how many more users looked to move into an area than leave.
- Miami: Net inflow 8,600 – top origin city, New York City
- Phoenix: Net inflow 7,600 – top origin city, Seattle
- Las Vegas: Net inflow 6,600 – top origin city, Los Angeles
- Tampa: Net inflow 6,000 – top origin city, New York City
- Orlando: Net inflow 5,400 – top origin city, New York City
- Sacramento: Net inflow 5,400 – top origin city, San Francisco
- Cape Coral: Net inflow 4,900 – top origin city, Chicago
- North Port-Sarasota: Net inflow 4,900 – top origin city, Chicago
- Dallas: Net inflow 4,800 – top origin city, Los Angeles
- Houston: Net inflow 4,300 – top origin city, New York City
Things have changed a bit for the top outbound cities, however. While the nation’s largest cities generally saw a population decline during the pandemic, a few are now seeing a better balance between incoming and outgoing residents. Immigration into major U.S. coastal cities like New York and Los Angeles, for example, has rebounded after dropping off drastically in 2020 and 2021.
In many cases, an uptick in international buyers has made up for some of the residents moving to less expensive destinations. The net inflow of immigrants more than doubled from 2021 to 2022 in the Bay Area, New York, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C. and Boston.
“Several years of declining immigration, compounded by Americans flowing out of big coastal cities during the pandemic, resulted in many major coastal cities losing population,” says Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “Last year’s immigration rebound was a boon for those cities, which take in most of the people who move to the U.S. from other countries. For the housing and rental markets, the recovery should add enough demand to at least partly make up for the existing residents who move further inland.”
Top 10 move-out U.S. metros, 1Q year-to-year
- San Francisco: Net outflow 31,100 – top destination city, Sacramento
- New York: Net outflow 23,400 – top destination city, Miami
- Los Angeles: Net outflow 20,300 – top destination city, Las Vegas
- Washington, D.C. : Net outflow 18,000 – top destination city, Miami
- Boston: Net outflow 5,800 – top destination city, Miami
- Seattle: Net outflow 4,700 – top destination city, Phoenix
- Chicago: Net outflow 4,500 – top destination city, Cape Coral
- Denver: Net outflow 4,200 – top destination city, Chicago
- Hartford: Net outflow 3,200 – top destination city, Boston
- Minneapolis: Net outflow 2,500 – top destination city, Chicago
Overall, Miami, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Tampa and Orlando were the most popular move-to destinations. Sun Belt locales are typically the most popular because they’re relatively affordable. The typical home in eight of the 10 most popular destinations is less expensive than in its top origin.
People are also moving to the Sun Belt from other countries, and immigration into seven of the 10 most popular migration destinations – Phoenix, Tampa, Orlando, Cape Coral, North Port-Sarasota, Dallas and Houston – more than doubled from 2021 to 2022. However, they still didn’t achieve the total numbers of immigrants as the nation’s big coastal metros.
© 2023 Florida Realtors®
Global Transactions Rebound Despite Challenges
Florida Realtors economist: Florida remains a hotspot for international buyers and sellers, with a slight rebound in activity in 2022. However, constraints remain.
ORLANDO, Fla – A slight rebound in sales activity in 2022 marked progress as the world continues to recover from the pandemic. Exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, supply chain issues continued to drag on the global economy despite a stronger domestic recovery.
According to Florida Realtors® 2022 Profile of International Residential Transactions in Florida Report, residential purchases (non-commercial) between August 2021 and July 2022 rose 5% compared to the prior 12-month period. The combination of higher sales and rising prices meant dollar volume also increased, reaching $15.3 billion – 20% more than $12.3 billion in 2021.
However, higher sale prices, inflation and lack of inventory continue to constrain the purchase power of buyers of any origin: 49% of respondents cited cost and 38% cited property availability as reasons for not finalizing a deal in 2022.
Florida remains a bargain compared to many other options for international buyers looking to purchase in the United States, but competition for property remains strong and offers few discounts.
Visitors to Florida from abroad – often a precursor to their long-term purchase decision – have been rebounding since travel restrictions evaporated in November 2021. In 2022, 92% of foreign buyers visited Florida before purchasing, up from 89% the year before and back to the historical trend.
South America and Canada continued to lead the pack of international visitors in 2022. These same groups also translate into buyers, with 45% of Florida’s foreign buyers coming from Latin America/Caribbean and 21% coming from Canada.
Despite a slight decline in the number of Canadians transacting in Florida, the value of what they buy is increasing, and it pushed them to the top spot with $1.7 billion in sales in 2022. By comparison, Brazilian buyers, the second largest group, purchased $486 million.
International buyers continue to favor South Florida, with 53% of purchases taking place in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach MSA, and the vast majority of those buyers coming from Latin America and the Caribbean. While only 3% of international-buyer purchases took place in the Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island MSA, 51% of them were made by Canadians.
Anyone purchasing Florida real estate in 2022 knew that prices had been rising steadily, but that’s particularly true for foreign buyers. The median sale price among Florida foreign buyers was $462,000 in 2022, increasing $114,700 from 2021’s median price of $347,300.
The median price among foreign buyers was 22% more than the median of all properties sold in Florida between August 2021 and July 2022.
Among buyers from the five countries with the most purchases, Brazilians typically purchased the most expensive properties. The reason for their higher price point of $472,140 was a combination of a preference for detached single-family homes and their focus on more expensive metros, such as the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach MSA. Argentine buyers also flocked to South Florida, but they tended to purchase condominiums, which generally have a lower price than their detached counterparts. The median purchase price for Argentine buyers was $334,444 in 2022.
Cash is king among foreign buyers, with 69% of their purchases made with all cash compared to 44% for all United States buyers. Cash is most popular among buyers from Canada, Peru and Argentina, while slightly more Brazilian and Columbian buyers take on a U.S. mortgage.
Looking to get into the international buyer game? It’s all about personal contacts and referrals, as 32% and 21% of business came from those two sources respectively. Location is also a major factor, as 42% of respondents cite location as the prime reason for their purchase. For others, profitability and security of investments is what clinches the deal. Know your market and what buyers are looking for to appeal to their needs.
The 2022 Profile of International Residential Transactions in Florida report presents information from Florida Realtors members regarding residential transactions with international clients closed during the 12-month period of August 2021–July 2022. This annual survey and report is conducted to assess international investment trends in Florida residential real estate, including sales volume, characteristics of foreign buyers, and challenges and opportunities inherent in cross-border transactions.
Jennifer Warner is an economist and Florida Realtors Director of Economic Development
© 2023 Florida Realtors®
Why Does It Still Feel Like a Seller’s Market?
RE usually sees cycles between buyer’s and seller’s markets, but this time it’s a bit different. Supply vs. demand hasn’t changed because both sides pulled back.
SEATTLE – New listings fell 21.8% year-to-year during the four weeks ending April 2, one of the biggest drops since the start of the pandemic, according to a Redfin study.
An increasing number of homeowners don’t want to move because they still have generational-low mortgage rates secured only a few years ago. While rates have fallen for four weeks in a row, according to this week’s report, they’re still about twice as high as they were before 2021.
As a result, buyers unafraid of current mortgage rates quickly scoop up new listings. Of homes going under contract, nearly half are doing so within two weeks; at the beginning of 2023, it was about 25%.
“Elevated mortgage rates are perhaps an even bigger deterrent for would-be sellers than for would-be buyers,” says Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “Giving up a 3% mortgage rate for one in the 6% range is a tough pill to swallow. Today’s serious homebuyers have grown accustomed to the idea of a 5% or 6% rate and have adjusted their budgets accordingly.”
“Shiny new listings are getting multiple offers and selling fast. The caveat is that they have to be priced correctly from the beginning,” says Denver Redfin agent Stephanie Collins. “One of my buyers recently made an offer on a move-in ready home in a popular area. The home was priced right in line with the market at $520,000; it received eight offers and went for $560,000 to a competing buyer.”
Florida ranks near top for rising home prices
In cities where buyer demand outpaces seller supply, home prices continue to go up – and Florida is home to three of the top five U.S. cities for price increases.
While Milwaukee led the nation for price increases (up 11.4% year-to-year), Fort Lauderdale came in second (up 8.9%), followed by West Palm Beach (up 8.2%), Miami (up 7.9%) and Columbus, Ohio (up 6.3%).
On the flipside, the top five price declines in the U.S. were largely on the West Coast: Home prices dropped in 28 of the U.S.’s 50 most populous metros, with the biggest drop in Austin, Texas (down 14.7% year-to-year), Sacramento (down 11.7%), Oakland, California (down 10.4%), San Jose (down 10.2%) and Seattle (down 9.6%).
© 2023 Florida Realtors®
Fla.’s Confidence Index Up – 3rd Month in a Row
Banking sector chaos and a see-sawing stock market didn’t deeply impact Floridians. UF’s sentiment index for March rose 2 points, surprising UF economists.
GAINESVILLE, Fla. – Consumer sentiment in Florida increased for a third month in a row in March to 69.7, up 2 points from a revised figure of 67.7 in February. On the contrary, a similar national sentiment study found a 5-point drop.
“Considering the chaos in the banking sector in mid-March – which saw the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis – the positive change in consumer attitudes among Floridians in March comes as a surprise,” says Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at the University of Florida’s (UF) Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
“Despite some speculation that the Federal Reserve would halt rate hikes in response to the recent string of bank failures, the Fed officials decided to continue raising interest rates in their latest meeting as inflation remains high and the labor market is still tight,” he added.
Among the five components that make up the index, four increased and one decreased.
Current economic conditions: Views of personal financial situations now compared with a year ago increased 2.1 points, from 58.6 to 60.7 – and those views were shared by Floridians across all sociodemographic groups, despite still-present inflation.
However, opinions on whether it’s a good time to purchase a major household item like an appliance fell slightly by three-tenths of a point, from 57.9 to 57.6.
Future economic expectations: Personal financial expectations a year from now went up 2.3 points, from 81.5 to 83.8. Expectations about U.S. economic conditions over the next year also rose, going up 2.1 points from 67.6 to 69.7.
But the outlook for U.S. economic conditions over the next five years showed the greatest increase in March, up 3.7 points from 73 to 76.7. It was a positive view shared by all Floridians except those with an annual income under $50,000.
February job gains remained solid. The unemployment rate in Florida held steady at 2.6%, while the national increased slightly to 3.6%. First-time unemployment claims in Florida continued to decline, reaching their lowest level since December. Over the year, the state gained 427,400 non-agricultural jobs, with all 10 major industries experiencing positive gains. The leisure and hospitality industry saw the largest increase in employment.
“The latest data clearly indicates that the labor market remains unusually tight. When combined with the persistently high inflation rate, it strongly suggests that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates in the coming months,” says Sandoval.
However, Sandoval predicts a future decline in Floridian consumer sentiment.
“Over the past 12 months, the Fed has increased interest rates more than at any time since the early 1980s,” he says. “Moreover, the recent turmoil in the banking sector might have dented economic growth and increased the risk of a recession as financial institutions are likely to become more cautious in their lending. As a result, we anticipate that consumer sentiment in Florida will remain at its low levels for some time to come.”
The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is a 2, the highest is 150.
© 2023 Florida Realtors®
Why Is Fla. America’s Fastest-Growing State?
April 3, 2023
The Census Bureau says Fla. is now the nation’s fastest growing state, a rank it hasn’t held since 1957. Why? Taxes often get some credit, but it’s mainly the sunshine.
WASHINGTON – Florida is the fastest-growing state in America for the first time since 1957, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The population in the southeastern state, which is known for its warm weather and sandy beaches, now tops 22 million.
“I hate being cold,” says Kathy Bonini, 42, who grew up in Pennsylvania but moved to Florida in 2011. “Everybody loves sunshine and palm trees.”
Nancy Sikes-Kline, mayor of the Florida port city of St. Augustine, agrees.
“You know, we call ourselves ‘the sunshine state’ and I think that that makes a big difference,” Sikes-Kline says when asked why people relocate to her state. “I think, at the very core, it’s just this wonderful weather that we have. The sunshine.”
Florida is known for attracting older, retired Americans. But more than 700,000 people of all ages moved to the state between April 1, 2020, and July 1, 2022. That was during the COVID-19 pandemic, a time when many remote workers could live wherever they wanted.
Economist Sean Snaith says there are factors other than the weather that draw people to Florida, including a robust labor market and the fact that, unlike most U.S. states, Florida has no state income tax.
“Depending on where folks are moving from, that might be an extra 8, 9, 10% of your pay that you get to keep that previously went to pay state taxes or other local taxes,” says Snaith, an economics professor at the University of Central Florida and director of UCF’s Institute for Economic Forecasting.
An analysis of Census data shows that people within the United States who move to Florida most frequently come from New York, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and California.
“Time to kind of get out of California with the wildfires and the high cost of living,” says Florida resident Aaron Dan, 36, who moved from the West Coast in May 2021, during the pandemic. Dan, who works in real estate, sees more opportunities for land development and commercial leasing in Florida. “You can get a lot more for your dollar around here, lower taxes, obviously,” he says. So, I think just the cost of living is very attractive as well as the opportunity for growth.”
Even before the pandemic, nearly two-thirds of the people who lived in Florida came from out of state. One-fifth of those transplants relocated from a foreign country.
“We’ve had a lot of international in-migration to the state from a variety of locations. You know, it’s not just one or two countries, it’s Central America and South America, the Caribbean,” Snaith says. “People want to move to the United States, in general, and Florida tends to get a larger chunk of those immigrants.”
But population growth can make life in the Sunshine State more expensive. The average price of a home in Florida rose 14% in the past year, compared with the national average of 8.7%, according to Zillow, a real estate marketplace company.
“Florida is kind of a cheap place to buy a house and to live. That’s become less the case,” Snaith says. “So that is making life difficult in terms of affordability. And that’s one of the problems that Florida is going to be grappling with here, I think, for some time to come.”
Realtor Sharon Wooten is a Florida native. Over time, she’s seen orange groves give way to housing developments.
“It’s changed a lot. The farmland is gone. I think if we take care of our natural resources, and we don’t grow too fast, it’s OK. And, I think, if we are choosy about what comes in. A lot of these developments are very, very nice and they take care of these developments and everything they do is top notch,” she says. “As long as it’s good growth, it’s OK. You know, it’s brought in a lot of opportunities for people in this area that they may not have ever had.”
Wooten says the increased development has had a positive impact on daily life for some.
“My mother and my grandmother have had opportunities to shop and go to plays and restaurants and things that they didn’t have before,” she says. “So, it’s just sort of opened up a new world to them.”
Snaith says that, as far as the economy is concerned, population growth is “nothing but good news.”
“Every new household that moves to Florida needs a place to live, they need food, they need medical care, their children, if they have them, need schooling, and they clothe them. They need all the things that consumers buy,” Snaith says. “So, you know, population growth is one side of the coin. The flip side of that same coin is economic growth. … The more people you have in any regional economy, the more economic activity they will generate.”
Florida is the third-most-populous state in the country. People have been moving there since the 1950s, when air-conditioning first became commonplace, and that influx shows no signs of letting up.
“Unless there’s some sort of a dramatic change to, you know, the environment, politically, economically,” Snaith says, “I just don’t see any kind of factor that would take us off this course that the state’s been on for a long time.”
Copyright © 2023 Federal Information & News Dispatch, Inc.
Falling Mortgage Rates Add Fuel to Housing Recovery
Mortgage rates continued to slide this week, adding more fuel to what appears to be a recovering housing market. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.32% for the week ending March 30, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Borrowing costs are heading down as major housing indicators, such as existing-home sales, new-home construction and contract signings for home purchases, have been on the rise for the past three months.
“Although there was some calming in the market after the recent bank shock, mortgage rates continued to drop,” says Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research for the National Association of REALTORS®. “Thus, buyers were able to lock in a lower rate by the end of the first quarter.”
The people most affected by shifts in mortgage rates may be baby boomers, who have edged out millennials as the top homebuying force in America, according to NAR’s recent 2023 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report. “This demographic shift is bound to be observed in the real estate market for the next decade,” Evangelou says. “About 20 million additional households will be older than 65 by 2030. With nearly 80% of them owning their home, baby boomers have substantially more wealth than younger generations.”
But limited housing options likely will hold some would-be buyers back this spring, says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Over the last several weeks, declining rates have brought borrowers back to the market,” he says. “But as the spring homebuying season gets underway, low inventory remains a key challenge for prospective buyers.”
Freddie Mac reported the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending March 30:
- 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 6.32%, down from last week’s 6.42% average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 4.67%.
- 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 5.56%, also down from last week’s 5.68% average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 3.83%.
Articles written by REALTOR® Magazine staff.
Study: High Number of Buyers Still Move State-to-State
In Feb., the number of buyers searching listings outside their state dropped 3.6% year-to-year – but those looking locally fell 14.4%. 5 Fla. metros are top go-to spots.
SEATTLE – The number of home searchers looking to relocate to a new metro fell 3.6% year-to-year in February, according to a report from Redfin – but that’s less than a 14.4% drop looking to relocate within their current metro. And once again, Florida and other Sun Belt states sparked the most interest.
Rising mortgage rates dented buyer demand in general, but it’s had little impact on where buyers wish to move. In some cases, buyers moving from high-cost metros, such as the San Francisco Bay area, can compensate for higher interest rates by buying a home in less costly metro areas, such as many in Florida. High rates don’t impact those buyers as much because they’re getting a cheaper house and possibly pocketing some proceeds from a home sale in a more expensive area.
Additionally, some relocating homebuyers have a non-negotiable reason for their move, such as a better job or to be closer to family. High rates are less likely to deter those buyers than ones simply considering a different house within the same town.
Buyers moving to a new metro
Of the buyers nationwide seeking a home, one in four (25.1%) looked to relocate to a new metro in February. A year earlier, it was 22.9%. Before the pandemic, it was roughly 18%.
For state-to-state movers, five of the top 10 go-to destinations are in Florida.
Top 10 go-to metro areas
- Miami
- Phoenix
- Las Vegas
- Sacramento, California
- Tampa
- Orlando
- Cape Coral
- Dallas
- North Port-Sarasota
- Houston
Popularity is determined by net inflow – how many home shoppers looked to move into an area rather than out of that area.
The typical home in popular go-to destinations is less expensive than the typical home they want to leave behind. The typical Miami home sold for $485,000 in February, for example, compared with $640,000 in New York, the most common origin for its incoming homebuyers.
Top 10 move-out metro areas
- San Francisco
- New York
- Los Angeles
- Washington, D.C.
- Chicago
- Boston
- Seattle
- Denver
- Hartford
- Portland
© 2023 Florida Realtors®
SW Fla. Doing Fine After Hurricane and Pandemic
CEO of Sage Communities: “Who ever thought that a devastating hurricane would cause a real estate boom?” Ian’s hardest-hit barrier islands are now hot spots.
FORT MYERS, Fla. – The future of Southwest Florida real estate looks bright, three high-profile area real estate experts say, but just how bright depends on several factors few of us have any control over: percentages, pricing and politics.
Randy Thibaut, founder of LSI Companies and CEO of Sage Communities likes to call them the three “Ps.” Percentages refers to interest rates. Pricing is the cost of real estate, politics refers to the volatile political climate in the state and nationally.
There’s a fourth “P” that is under our control: perspective.
Thibaut and Denny Grimes, residential real estate expert and president of Denny Grimes & Team at Keller Williams Realty, along with Justin Thibaut, Randy’s son and CEO of LSI Companies, all presented the facts and their perspectives on what the three “P”s might or not bring us, as we emerge from the COVID pandemic and navigate a way forward from probably the biggest natural weather disaster Southwest Florida has ever faced – Hurricane Ian.
No wonder the path is uncertain. What is certain is the resiliency of the residents of Southwest Florida and the resolve to move through it.
That’s why the theme of their event Market Trends, held recently before a sold-out crowd at the Caloosa Sound Convention Center in Fort Myers, was called “The Future Ain’t What It Used to Be.”
“You would think the pandemic and hurricane would devastate the market. It didn’t,” Randy Thibaut said. In COVID, people locked down, but Florida had an “open for business policy,” and the opportunity to escape more stringent restrictions elsewhere, he said.
Businesses using Zoom to communicate with employees confined to their homes meant you were no longer tied to your desk to do your job, Grimes said. Those who already planned to retire to Southwest Florida just decided to make the move earlier.
When talking about the housing market, “The elephant in the room is obviously Hurricane Ian,” Thibaut said. “Who ever thought that a devastating hurricane would cause a real estate boom?” In areas hurt the most – that is, the barrier islands – is where the real estate market is hottest, he said.
“Vulture buyers” swooped in immediately after the hurricane to buy up what’s left, he said. “Now the vultures are in a feeding frenzy,” and are continuing to pay significantly more for properties, he said. He doesn’t see the frenzy stopping anytime soon.
“Who could imagine a clean slate in Fort Myers Beach?” Thibaut asked. “The sky’s the limit.”
He sees Fort Myers Beach undergoing a kind of “renaissance and rebirth” and being rebuilt as an upscale community, bringing in a whole new demographic. “There are many people who love Fort Myers Beach and don’t want it to change. But it has to change because it has to be rebuilt,” he said. “Some owners are saying, ‘I’m never going to sell,’” he said. “That’s because they haven’t received the (right) offer yet.”
The scenario is multi-million-dollar condos, Thibaut said. The question is whether the local town government at the beach can handle it. “Are they able to handle the tidal wave coming this way?” They may need to ask Lee County for help, he said. “This is not for amateurs.”
Sanibel and Captiva islands are facing the same tidal wave, but on an even higher level, he said. People are buying properties that weren’t even damaged to redevelop them, he said. “There are opportunities galore for custom builders.”
Meanwhile, “Developers and builders are pounding their fists” and wanting building permits,” he said. The county staff have done a remarkable job, processing a whopping 35,000 permits since Ian, he said. Those permits were mostly for hurricane repair.
But builders and contractors are also on the fence as conditions are more uncertain. Interest rates are hovering around 7%. “There’s a big difference when you go from 3.5% to 7%,” he said. Buyers get priced out of the market. Those who already bought at 3.5% are holding on to what they have because now the rates are 7%.
Then there’s the turmoil of the political climate.
“I’m pretty confident when these three align (percentages, price and politics), we’ll go from a normal market to a bat-shit crazy market.”
Grimes presented statistics that show the residential real estate market has already been pretty crazy.
For example, when the housing bubble burst in 2009, the median sale price for an existing single family home in Lee County was $89,000. That price rose 180% to $249,000 in 2019. Since then, the price has risen another 67% to $416,000 at the end of 2022. Since the bubble burst in 2009 the price has gone up more than 340%. Currently, the median sale price in Lee County is $430,000, he said.
At the end of 2022, the median price for a single-family home in Lee was $416,250; in Collier County, $775,000 and in Charlotte County, $389,450.
Grimes said he hypothesized that the market would suffer more in Hurricane Ian than the rest of the state, but Lee and Collier counties actually outperformed the rest of the state, he said.
And the mantra is no longer location, location, location, he said. It is availability and higher ground. The best-selling communities in 2022 were Babcock Ranch and Ave Maria.
Last year, mortgage rates doubled in one year, Grimes said. He believes interest rates will go higher before they go lower. Even when they lower, no one should ever expect to see a 3% interest rate again. It’s still a seller’s market, but no longer at the level where a seller would tell a buyer “Jump” and the buyer would say, “How high?” he said.
“The best time to buy is when sellers fear tomorrow be will worse than today,” he said.
You will never see a market crushed permanently by a natural disaster, Grimes said. People still want the three “W”s: water, warmth, way of life. The danger is more from man-made disasters. For example, what is the difference between a toxic train derailment in Ohio and a toxic green algae bloom in Southwest Florida?, he asked. If we don’t take care of the environment, the market will lose demand, he said.
In the commercial real estate market, “interest rates from my perspective will probably get worse rather than better” in the short term, Justin Thibaut said.
Of the total transactions volume, 56% was in the retail sector, 24% in the industrial sector and 20% in the office sector. The hospitality sector was devastated by Hurricane Ian, from destruction to canceled reservations, and recovery is expected to be slow, he said. But we need to embrace the “new, exciting developments that will come,” as rebuilding continues on Fort Myers Beach and elsewhere, Mr. Thibaut said. “Don’t fight the new.”
For the industrial sector, there is 7 million square feet proposed in Lee County alone, he said. However, there needs to be less focus on large-scale facilities and more on small support facilities. Small, multi-tenant rental space is needed, he said.
In the office sector, it’s “the return of the pants,” Mr. Thibaut said. “Not every company wants their employees to work remotely.” So offices are going back to occupancy. But how much space do we really need? he asked. Development on this front is slow and steady.
Randy Thibaut said, “There is optimism from buyers, from builders, from developers. Southwest Florida has nothing but green lights in the future.”
© Copyright 2023 Florida Weekly. All rights reserved.
Analysis: Fla.’s Tax Burden One of Lowest in U.S.
Calif. Gov. Newsom says his state is “well worth the price” compared to Fla., but an analysis finds Fla. at No. 45 for overall tax burden while Calif. is No. 9.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. – How do California’s taxes rank compared to other states like Florida or Texas? Californians do have a bigger tax burden than rival states Texas and Florida.
WalletHub, a financial services firm, estimated that the annual state and local taxes for a median California household cost $9,612. In Texas, the bill is $8,006, and in Florida, $5,355. Californians’ tax rates overall are lower than the national average. However, high incomes and property values drive up the taxes.
Gov. Gavin Newsom likes to compare the cost of living in California, Texas and Florida, arguing his state is well worth the price.
WalletHub found that a Californian’s tax burden ranks ninth highest in the country, well above Texas’ 32nd ranking and Florida’s 45th. Tax burden is the property, individual income and sales and excise tax as a share of personal income.
The more income, the lower the tax rate, said the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a progressive economic group. It said that the top 1% of income earners in Texas paid an average of 3.1% in state and local taxes as a share of income. The top 1% in California paid 12.4%.
The ultra-wealthy could be getting hit even harder. President Joe Biden last week proposed a series of higher taxes on those with incomes of more than $400,000. He would increase the Medicare tax rate from 3.8% to 5% on incomes above that level, and would impose a 25% minimum tax rate on wealth over $100 million. Biden’s budget maintains that the wealthy benefit from “sophisticated tax planning and giant loopholes” that often allows them to pay income tax at rates lower than middle and lower class earners.
How high are California’s taxes?
There are two ways to view California’s tax situation.
Its combined local and state tax rate is 8.97%, WalletHub found. That includes income, property, sales and other taxes.
Florida’s combined rate is 8.21%. Texas’ is 12.73%.
The real estate taxes in Texas are the sixth highest nationwide, amounting to over $4,200 annually on average. California’s rate ranks 36th.
Texas’ sales taxes are the fourth highest in the country. California ranks 19th.
“Florida’s taxes are lower than California’s mostly because Florida does not impose an income tax or a vehicle property tax, whereas California does,” said Jill Gonzalez, an analyst at WalletHub. But in other ways, she said, California’s taxes are lower than Texas’ because “Texas has significantly higher property, sales and excise taxes.”
The rates alone, though, don’t tell the whole story.
Incomes tend to be higher on average in California. So does the cost of housing. Taxes consume an average of 9.72% of Californians’ income.
Texans pay 8.22% of their income in taxes, ranking the state 32nd. Florida residents pay 6.64%, for a ranking of 45th.
The nation’s lowest tax bills are in Delaware, $7,707. The highest is New Jersey at $12,652.
© 2023 The Sacramento Bee. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
FHFA: Fla. has 6 of Top 10 Price-Increase Metros
The FHFA House Price Index in 4Q 2022 found an 8.4% year-to-year rise – but 20.1% in top-ranking Bradenton. Of 100 metros, none in Fla. was lower than 31.
WASHINGTON – U.S. house prices rose 8.4% year-to-year – between the fourth quarter (4Q) of 2021 and 2022 – according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (FHFA HPI).
Quarter-to-quarter, house prices rose 0.3% (4Q 2022 compared to 3Q 2022). FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for December was down 0.1% from November.
“House prices grew at a much slower pace in recent quarters amid higher mortgage rates and a decline in mortgage applications” says Dr. Polkovnichenko, supervisory economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “These negative pressures were partially offset by historically low inventory.”
Florida bucks the trend
Florida saw the highest year-to-year price increase of any state with 15.2%. No. 2 North Carolina saw 13.4%.
In a ranking of the largest 100 U.S. metros for home-price growth, Florida’s also rose the most year-to-year, taking six of the top 10 spots. No Florida city ranked lower than Jacksonville at No. 31.
Two metros, however, saw quarter-to-quarter drops: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater was down 0.1% between 3Q and 4Q, and Jacksonville fell 1.8% quarter-to-quarter. Five other metros saw a quarter-to-quarter increase, and one metro (Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall) was unchanged.
A complete list of the 100 metros is posted on FHFA’s website.
FHFA’s 4Q home-price-increase rankings for Florida metros
1. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton: Up 20.1% year-to-year, 0.7% quarter-to-quarter
2. Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Sunrise: Up 18.2% year-to-year, 0.9% quarter-to-quarter
3. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach: UP 17.8% year-to-year, 0.4% quarter-to-quarter
4. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford: Up 16.9% year-to-year, 0.6% quarter-to-quarter
5. Cape Coral-Fort Myers: Up 16.2% year-to-year, 0.9% quarter-to-quarter
7. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater: Up 15.8% year-to-year, down 0.1% quarter-to-quarter
14. Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall: Up 13.3% year-to-year, 0.0% quarter-to-quarter
31. Jacksonville: Up 10.4% year-to-year, down 1.8% quarter-to-quarter
The FHFA HPI is considered one of the best indicators of changing U.S. home prices, measuring all 50 states and over 400 American cities. It uses seasonally adjusted, purchase-only data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Other notable 4Q findings
- The U.S. housing market has seen positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012.
- House prices rose in all 50 states, though prices declined in the District of Columbia between 4Q 2021 and 2022. The five areas with the highest annual appreciation were 1) Florida, 15.2%, 2) North Carolina, 13.4%, 3) South Carolina, 12.9%, 4) Hawaii, 12.8%, and 5) Maine, 12.2%.
- The areas showing the lowest annual appreciation were the 1) District of Columbia, down 0.8%, 2) California, 2.3%, 3) Idaho, 3.1%, 4) Oregon, 3.6% and 5) Washington, 3.7%.
- House prices rose in all but six of the top 100 largest metropolitan areas year-to-year. The annual price increase was greatest in North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton at 20.1% and Oakland-Berkeley-Livermore, Calif. saw the greatest decline, dropping 4.3%.
© 2023 Florida Realtors®
Floridians Feel More Optimistic in Feb.
February 28, 2023
Attitudes turn positive: A monthly UF study of Floridians saw a 1.9-point increase overall, with a rise in current expectations as well as expectations for the future.
GAINESVILLE, Fla. – In February, consumer sentiment among Floridians increased 1.9 points to 67.2 from January’s revised figure of 65.3. A similar national consumer sentiment index increased 2.1 points. However, The Conference Board reported a decline in Americans’ overall consumer attitudes last month.
“Consumer sentiment continued to improve for the second consecutive month in February, indicating a reversal in trajectory compared with a year ago,” said Hector Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “This optimistic outlook is consistent with the observed resilience of the labor market, despite the recent layoffs in the tech sector. Furthermore, the easing of inflation and inflation expectations over past months is also in line with growing optimism.”
Each of the five components that make up the index increased in February.
Current conditions: Floridians’ opinions about current economic conditions were positive. Views of personal financial situations now compared with a year ago showed the greatest increase in this month’s reading, increasing 3.1 points from 55.4 to 58.5. Similarly, opinions as to whether now is a good time to buy a major household item like an appliance increased 1.7 points from 55.3 to 57, the highest level in the past twelve months.
These positive views were shared by all Floridians except for women, who reported less-favorable views to the former component and people with an annual income under $50,000, who reported less-favorable views to the latter.
Future conditions: Outlooks regarding anticipated economic conditions were also positive. Expectations of personal finances a year from now increased 1.5 points from 79.7 to 81.2. Similarly, expectations about the U.S. economic conditions over the next year increased 3 points from 64 to 67, while views of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years increased slightly one-tenth of a point from 72.2 to 72.3.
However, a positive outlook was not uniform across sociodemographic groups. People with an annual income under $50,000 expressed less-favorable views regarding all three components.
Additionally, women and people younger than 60 reported less favorable views regarding their financial situation and national economic conditions over the next 5 years.
“Overall, Floridians were more optimistic in February,” said Sandoval. “The increase in consumer sentiment is attributed to improvements in Floridians' current financial situation compared with a year ago and their expectations for the national economy over the next year. This suggests that consumers' fears of a recession over the next year are declining, which could translate into higher discretionary spending. While a recession is not ruled out from the future economic outlook, improved confidence could assist policymakers in achieving a soft landing, that is, to slow the economy without triggering a recession.”
He added, “Looking ahead, a tight labor market will likely lead Fed officials to continue raising interest rates and borrowing costs, and to hold these rates higher for a longer period of time to cool the economy and reduce inflation. In turn, this could lead to increased fears of a recession, resulting in a decline in consumer sentiment.”
The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is a 2, the highest is 150.
© 2023 Florida Realtors®
Pending home sales show biggest gain since 2020
NAR's monthly report found that as mortgage rates declined in January, pending home sales moved upward.
By Linda F. Hersey - February 27, 2023
Key points:
- An 8.1% increase in pending home sales in January was the biggest monthly gain since June 2020.
- Year over year, pending home sales were off by more than 24%.
- NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said he expects home sales to be down by more than 11% in 2023.
Pending home sales climbed by more than 8% in January, the biggest monthly gain since June 2020. Monthly pending home sales were up in all four U.S. regions, the National Association of Realtors reported.
January’s rise marked the second straight month of gains in pending home sales after a half-year of consecutive declines. Pending homes sales rose by a modest 2.5% increase in December.
Year over year, pending home sales were off by more than 24%.
“Buyers responded to better affordability from falling mortgage rates in December and January,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun, predicting that 30-year fixed mortgages will drop to an average of 6.1% in 2023 and 5.4% in 2024.
“Home sales activity looks to be bottoming out in the first quarter of this year, before incremental improvements will occur,” Yun said, adding that he does not expect an annual gain in home sales in 2023.
Yun is forecasting that housing sales will drop by 11% for the year to a total of 4.47 million units. He predicts that the median home price will decrease by 1.6% to $380,100 for the year.
Taylor Marr, Redfin’s chief economist, noted that in January there were fewer new listings on the market “than at any point on record, with the exception of the pandemic.”
The lack of supply has impacted demand, because would-be buyers are having a harder time finding a home that matches their needs and budget, he said, adding that the low inventory also is keeping home prices high.
Hannah Jones, economic data analyst with Realtor.com, noted there is typically higher buyer demand in the spring. But she predicts “this spring is expected to be less active than the last couple of years as affordability challenges persist.”
Rising interest rates are also hampering affordability, said Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant, who noted that mortgage applications have been off in February as mortgage rates trend back up to “their highest levels since late November,” with weekly data showing “a pullback in activity.”
“In the current housing market, it is a battle between the rational, financial calculus of homebuying and the instinctive, psychological side,” Sturtevant said. “The head versus the heart. For some buyers, higher mortgage rates simply means buying a home is out of the question unless home prices fall.”
Home sales by region
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The West posted the strongest monthly growth in pending home sales at 10.1%, which was still off 29% from a year ago.
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Pending home sales in the South increased by 8.3% but were down more than 24% from January 2022.
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Pending home sales in the Midwest grew by 7.9% but were off more than 21% from a year ago.
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In the Northeast, monthly pending home sales rose 6%, which is a decline of 19.8% from January a year ago.
Yun said the West experienced “an extra bump” in pending home sales as rising home prices eased, while the South experienced stronger demand for homes due to job growth.
5 Fla. Metros Lead in Buyers’ Online Searches
1 in 4 buyers searching for a home via Redfin’s website considered homes in other metros. Fla. remains a top choice, and Miami returned to the No. 1 spot.
SEATTLE – More U.S. buyers are considering out-of-city moves. Overall, fewer buyers are in the market this year and total numbers are down; but of those still searching, a higher percentage are looking outside their home city.
Redfin says a record one-quarter (24.9%) of its website users nationwide looked outside their metro area in January to find a new home as remote work and elevated housing costs drove homebuyers to seek other options.
One year ago, 22.8% of buyers searched in outside metro areas; before the pandemic, it was 18%.
Of the top 10 “desired cities” in the study, five are in Florida with Miami taking the No. 1 spot for the first time since August 2022. Other Florida cities on the top 10 “desirability” list include Tampa, Cape Coral, Orlando and North Port-Sarasota.
January inflow interest in Florida cities
- Miami: 7,200 inflow searches compared to 11,400 in 2022
- Sacramento, Calif: 6,200 compared to 7,200 in 2022
- Las Vegas: 5,700 compared to 6,900 in 2022
- Phoenix: 5,500 compared to 9,900 in 2022
- Tampa: 5,200 compared to 7,500 in 2022
- Dallas: 4,400 compared to 7,300 in 2022
- Cape Coral: 4,200 compared to 5,500 in 2022
- Orlando: 3,800 compared to 1,700 in 2022
- North Port-Sarasota: 3,800 compared to 5,300 in 2022
- Houston: 3,700 compared to 2,900 in 2022
The typical Miami home sold for $470,000 in January compared with the $383,000 national median, but they still tend to be less expensive than the places people are coming from. The typical home in New York, the top origin for homebuyers relocating to Miami, sold for $650,000 in January.
“A lot of buyers have flocked into coastal Florida from out of town over the last several months,” says Elena Fleck, a Redfin agent in Palm Beach. “Buyers moving in from places like New York and San Francisco are helping the local market recover from last fall’s housing downturn. They’re not nearly as fazed by high mortgage rates because homes here are so much less expensive than their hometowns, and they get larger lots, pools, nice weather and lower taxes.”
© 2023 Florida Realtors®
Jan. New-Home Sales Surge 17.1% in the South
Overall, Jan. new-home sales rose 7.2%, but the South’s 17.1% carried the three other areas that saw a decline. The Northeast saw the biggest drop at 19.4%.
WASHINGTON – Sales of newly built, single-family homes in January increased 7.2% to a 670,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from an upwardly revised reading in December, according to new data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.
However, the data also breaks the U.S. down into four geographic areas, and the South – which includes Florida – saw sales up 17.1%. It was the only area to see an increase and the strong numbers largely drove the total new-home sales data into positive territory.
The Northeast saw the biggest drop in new-home sales, down 19.4%; they declined 6.9% in the Midwest and 7.3% in the West.
According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the positive sales numbers are only part of the story, noting that the sales aren’t necessarily as profitable as they were during times of high demand because many builders offered homebuyer incentives.
“The latest HMI (Housing Market Index) survey shows 57% of builders are using incentives to bolster sales, including providing mortgage rate buy-downs, paying points for buyers and offering price reductions,” says Alicia Huey, chairman of NAHB. “Buyer incentives along with stabilizing mortgage rates during the month of January increased the pace of new home sales for the month.”
“Even though new home sales edged higher in January, the recent uptick in mortgage rates would imply continued weakness in the coming months,” says Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, NAHB’s assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis. “In terms of affordability, the median price is down for the third straight month and is down compared to a year ago.”
A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted, but the home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. The number is seasonally adjusted each month – a mathematical way to even out normal changes in demand through the year. The January reading of 670,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if the same pace continued for the next 12 months.
New single-family home inventory declined in January but remained elevated at a 7.9 months’ supply. A measure near a 6 months’ supply is considered balanced. Completed, ready-to-occupy inventory is up 115% year-to-year but still only 17% of total inventory.
In January, the median price for a new home was $427,500, down 8.2% month-to-month. It was the third straight monthly decline after peaking at 496,800 in October.
© 2023 Florida Realtors®
Moves to a New State? Fla. Says ‘Hi’ More than ‘Bye’
Florida Realtors economist: For do-it-yourself moves, Fla. ranks second in the number of new entrants. Do-it-all movers rank Fla. as one of only four “inbound states.”
ORLANDO, Fla – You can feel it on the roads – more people are moving to Florida. You’ve likely seen the trailers and moving trucks filled with their belongings too. The phenomenon is nothing new, and the latest data from van lines confirmed the trend continued in 2022.
DIY movers
U-Haul tracks over 2 million one-way transactions across the U.S. and Canada, and Florida falls behind only Texas in its annual Growth Index. The Sunshine State held the second spot for five of the past seven years, only deviating in 2019 (when it jumped to first) and in 2020 (when it fell to third).
Florida’s name appears beyond the state rankings, as U-Haul also analyzed their top growth cities. It’s the third year a Florida city stole the spotlight. Ocala had the highest net gain of one-way trucks during the last year. Joining Ocala on the 2022 list were three other Florida markets, Palm Bay-Melbourne (4), North Port (6), and Lakeland (21).
In 2020, North Port was the place to go, and in 2021, Kissimmee-St. Cloud took the crown.
Although the volume of trucks U-Haul reports speaks for itself, not all individuals/families prefer a do-it-yourself approach.
Full-service movers
Four van line companies that specialize in full-service moves report their migration patterns in annual reports. Each company shares details on interstate moves with its own perspective on how a state fared in the most recent year.
The general agreement is that movement greater than 55% in either direction determines if a state is an inbound or outbound state; otherwise, it’s assumed that the number of people who enter and exit is relatively balanced.
With that in mind, a consensus opinion from four movers instills more confidence since an individual company may not have the whole story, and they agree about Florida – it’s one of only four states that all van lines classify as inbound, along with Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina.
To read the map, each subsequent hex represents a different van line.
Specifically, Allied Van Lines found nearly 56% of Florida’s shipments were inbound. Similarly, North American Van Lines had 55%, and United Van Lines tracked over 57% of shipments headed into Florida compared to leaving the state. Atlas Van Lines reported the highest inbound rate at 59%.
Florida ranked as the fourth and fifth top inbound state for Atlas Van Lines and North American Van Lines, respectively.
Where in Florida, you ask? Sarasota is a hot spot according to Allied Van Lines. It also earned a place on United Van Line’s top inbound Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) list. At number seven, it was the second-highest Florida MSA behind Punta Gorda (5). Additionally, Fort Myers-Cape Coral (10), Fort Pierce-St. Lucie (12), Daytona Beach (13), and West Palm Beach-Boca Raton (19) made the top 25 cutoff.
Though there were fewer moves in 2022 than in 2021, Florida continued to check positive boxes for individuals and families relocating.
The flow of movers in and out of the Sunshine State is ripe with opportunities for Realtors. The van lines also share top outbound states, MSAs, and cities.
For more detail, access the full reports below:
- Allied Van Lines 2022 Magnet States Report
- Atlas Van Lines 2022 Migration Patterns Study
- North American Van Lines 2022 National Movers Study
- United Van Lines 2022 National Movers Study
Erica Plemmons is an economist and Florida Realtors Director of Housing Statistics
© 2023 Florida Realtors®
A Record 25% Of Home Searchers Looked To Move To A New Metro At The End Of 2022 As High Housing Costs Drove Relocation
A record one-quarter (24.6%) of Redfin.com users looked to move to a different metro area in the fourth quarter as remote work allowed the few Americans buying homes to seek out less expensive areas amid an ongoing housing affordability crunch. That’s up from 22.1% a year earlier and around 18% before the pandemic.
The people who are buying homes are relocating at an unprecedented rate because elevated mortgage rates, still-high home prices and economic uncertainty are driving many of them–especially remote workers–to more affordable areas.
But those same factors also caused the overall pool of homebuyers to shrink, with pending home sales down more than 30% from a year ago at the end of 2022. Many homeowners are also reluctant to move because they don’t want to give up their relatively low mortgage rate. Eight of the top 10 migration destinations in the fourth quarter all had fewer homebuyers looking to move in than a year earlier. Sacramento and Las Vegas, the most popular destinations, both had net inflows of around 5,500 in the fourth quarter, down from roughly 6,500 a year earlier. Phoenix, the fifth most popular destination, had a net inflow of about 4,000 in the fourth quarter, down from more 8,000. Net inflow is the number of people looking to move into a metro minus the number of people looking to leave.
“Phoenix is typically a huge vacation-home market, but I’ve seen a big decline in people purchasing second homes and investment properties lately. There are still out-of-towners buying homes and moving here full time, though that has also slowed down over the last several months as mortgage rates have risen,” said local Redfin agent Heather Mahmood-Corley. “Still, the cost of living in Phoenix is low compared to places like the Bay Area, Seattle, Denver and parts of the East Coast, where many out-of-towners are coming from. I helped one client buy a home in Washington State in 2016, and it has doubled in value. She sold that home last year and used the proceeds to buy a much bigger, nicer house in Phoenix.”
Sun Belt cities are the most popular destinations for relocators
After Sacramento and Las Vegas, Miami was the most popular migration destination in the fourth quarter. It’s followed by Tampa and Phoenix. Popularity is determined by net inflow.
Although home prices have soared in popular destinations like Las Vegas and Phoenix since the start of the pandemic as remote workers have moved in, they’re still far more affordable than places like the Bay Area or New York.
The typical home in eight of the 10 most popular destinations is less expensive than the typical home in the most common origin. For example, Sacramento’s $540,000 median sale price is significantly cheaper than $1.4 million in San Francisco, the top origin of out-of-towners coming to Sacramento. (Cape Coral, FL and North Port–Sarasota, FL, with Chicago as the top origin, are the exceptions). Warm weather is also attractive to relocators; all 10 of the top destinations are known for their sunny climates and five are in Florida.
| Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Moving Into, by Net Inflow
Net inflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to move into a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to leave |
|||||
| Rank | Metro* | Net Inflow, Q4 2022 | Net Inflow, Q4 2021 | Top Origin | Top Out-of-State Origin |
| 1 | Sacramento, CA | 5,700 | 6,600 | San Francisco, CA | Chicago, IL |
| 2 | Las Vegas, NV | 5,400 | 6,300 | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 3 | Miami, FL | 5,300 | 9,500 | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 4 | Tampa, FL | 4,000 | 6,500 | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 5 | Phoenix, AZ | 4,000 | 8,400 | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 6 | Dallas, TX | 3,400 | 6,700 | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 7 | Cape Coral, FL | 3,300 | 4,700 | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
| 8 | North Port-Sarasota, FL | 2,900 | 4,500 | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
| 9 | Houston, TX | 2,800 | 2,100 | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 10 | Orlando, FL | 2,800 | 1,000 | New York, NY | New York, NY |
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in October-December 2022 |
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Homebuyers are leaving expensive coastal job centers
More homebuyers looked to leave San Francisco than any other metro in the fourth quarter, followed by Los Angeles and New York. The ranking of places homebuyers are moving away from is determined by net outflow, a measure of how many more people are looking to leave a metro than move in.
Washington, D.C. and Chicago round out the top five, followed by several other large northern job centers. Those are typically the places homebuyers looked to leave, as they tend to be expensive.
There are fewer homebuyers leaving most of those places than there a year earlier, reflecting the slow housing market. The net outflow from seven of the top 10 metros was smaller in the fourth quarter than a year earlier.
| Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Leaving, by Net Outflow Net outflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to leave a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to move in |
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| Rank | Metro* | Net Outflow, Q4 2022 | Net Outflow, Q4 2021 | Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere | Top Destination | Top Out-of-State Destination |
| 1 | San Francisco, CA | 26,900 | 40,000 | 24% | Sacramento, CA | Seattle, WA |
| 2 | Los Angeles, CA | 23,100 | 32,000 | 20% | San Diego, CA | Las Vegas, NV |
| 3 | New York, NY | 17,600 | 19,300 | 27% | Miami, FL | Miami, FL |
| 4 | Washington, D.C. | 12,900 | 13,600 | 18% | Virginia Beach, VA | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 5 | Chicago, IL | 6,300 | 5,200 | 17% | Milwaukee, WI | Milwaukee, WI |
| 6 | Boston, MA | 4,900 | 8,000 | 18% | Portland, ME | Portland, ME |
| 7 | Denver, CO | 2,700 | 3,100 | 31% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
| 8 | Detroit, MI | 2,200 | 1,000 | 30% | Cleveland, OH | Cleveland, OH |
| 9 | Seattle, WA | 1,500 | 15,400 | 17% | Phoenix, AZ | Phoenix, AZ |
| 10 | Hartford, CT | 1,500 | 500 | 71% | Boston, MA | Boston, MA |
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in October-December 2022 |
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Below is a map of the most popular destinations for Redfin.com users who are leaving the Los Angeles metro. To view similar maps for the metros in this report and other metros, please visit the area’s Redfin housing market page and scroll down to the “migration” section.
Methodology
Our migration analysis is based on about two million Redfin.com users who viewed for-sale homes online across more than 100 metro areas from October 2022 to December 2022. To measure the share of homebuyers looking to relocate from one metro to another, we calculate the portion of overall home searchers that are migrants.
A Redfin.com user counts as a migrant if they viewed at least 10 for-sale homes in the third quarter and at least one of those homes was outside their home metro area. For instance, if a Redfin.com user based in Seattle views 10 homes in a three-month period and all of them are in Phoenix, that user counts as a full migrant to Phoenix. If a user based in Seattle views 10 homes in a three-month period and five are in Phoenix but five are in San Diego, that user counts as half of a migrant to Phoenix and half of a migrant to San Diego. If a user based in Seattle views 10 homes in a three-month period, nine in Seattle and one in Phoenix, that user counts as one-tenth of a migrant to Phoenix.
The analysis includes combined statistical areas with at least 500 Redfin.com users based in that region and at least 500 users searching for homes in that region. For instance, a user based in Seattle searching for a home in Phoenix counts toward the first condition, a user based in Phoenix searching for a home in Seattle counts toward the second condition, and a user based in Seattle searching for a home in Seattle counts toward both. Redfin’s migration data goes back to 2017.
Migration hits a new high, with Florida a top destination
New data from Redfin finds a record percentage of people are looking to move to another metro area, with affordability playing a bigger role.
Dave Gallagher - January 24, 2023
Key points:
- 24.6% of Redfin users were looking to move to another area in the fourth quarter.
- Sacramento was the most-searched city, but Florida was a popular destination, with five metro areas landing in the top 10.
- Expensive coastal cities topped the list of areas Redfin users were looking to move away from.
Movers are looking for Florida sunshine — and affordable homes.
The latest Redfin migration report found that nearly a quarter of its users were looking to move to a different metro area in the fourth quarter of 2022 — that’s more users than at any time during the pandemic, and a record number since the company began tracking the data.
While factors like remote work are still likely in play, affordability has become a more pressing issue. The report found most of the searches targeted more affordable areas that didn’t experience a big spike in home prices earlier in the pandemic.
Based on search volume, the most popular cities for would-be movers were Sacramento, Las Vegas and Miami. At the other end of the spectrum, San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York City had the highest number of users looking to move away.
Sacramento, along with some other cities on the list, has seen prices surge, but Redfin noted that it is still more affordable than the nearby overheated metro areas of San Francisco and San Jose.
Florida continues to have strong appeal, with five metro areas (Miami, Tampa, Cape Coral, Sarasota and Orlando) landing in the top 10 of most-searched areas among buyers who live outside those metros. Florida has consistently topped similar types of lists from other organizations that measured migration in 2022.
The report noted that overall, the number of people looking to move is down, reflecting the slower market. Eight out of the 10 migration destinations had fewer homebuyers looking compared with the previous year, according to the report.
However, those who want to move are more likely than ever to look at other metro areas. The 24.6% of users looking to move to another area in the fourth quarter is up from 22.1% a year earlier and around 18% before the pandemic.
While migration was especially high in the fourth quarter, the trend of moving to more affordable metro areas has been ongoing throughout the pandemic, even when the market was hot, according to data from Freddie Mac.
“The pandemic amplified existing urban de-concentration by threefold from large, expensive metro areas to smaller, more affordable destinations,” according to the Freddie Mac report.
More people may be willing to move in pursuit of affordability — but that doesn’t mean they’ll find a homebuying bargain. A recent affordability report from ATTOM found that in 95% of the largest markets analyzed, it was currently a better deal to rent than to buy, a reversal from a year ago.
Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence for ATTOM, noted that monthly payments for new homeowners rose around 50% in many markets, making renting a better option even as those payments have also risen.
Even some affordable markets for buyers continue to experience more outflow than inflow. Detroit, for example, where median sale prices are well below national levels at around $72,000 according to Redfin, had double the amount of outflow searches in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to a year earlier. The most popular city searched for by users in Detroit was nearby Cleveland, where the median sale price is an affordable $115,000.
Fla. Top State for 2022 Home Value Increases
Analysis finds Fla. home prices rose 17.27% last year, the most in the U.S., with Vermont second at 15.15%. But in last-place Idaho, values sank 0.18%.
TAMPA, Fla. – Florida home values rose more in 2022 than in any other state, according to data analyzed from real estate company, Zillow.
The average value of a Florida home, per the most recent publicly available data measured in December 2022, was just under $405,000 – That’s up more than $56,000 from $345,305 in January 2022.
The 17.27% change in value outpaced every other state in the nation.
Vermont was the runner-up, with home values rising an estimated 15.15% in the 12-month timeframe. The average value of a home there was estimated to be $386,000.
The state with the highest value homes was recorded in Hawaii, where the average value was $902,175 in December 2022 – up 9.63% from $822,924 in January 2022.
On the opposite end of the spectrum was Idaho, where home values actually fell 0.18%, or by $825, since January 2022. The average home value was $459,947 in December.
“The housing market has indeed been turbulent over the past few years, with house prices being affected by inflation, the pandemic and many more factors,” a spokesperson from Santa Monica Realtors said. “This study provides a fascinating insight into which parts of America have seen the highest increases as well as the lowest.”
The housing crisis facing America is particularly acute in Florida. Researchers at Florida Atlantic University study the price of housing across the country and in the Sunshine State. The data from FAU and Florida International University, called the Beracha and Johnson Index, analyzes home prices by comparing their expected prices and list prices.
As recently as December, FAU reported that five Florida real estate markets were among the most overpriced in the country.
“We hear how slow the U.S. housing market is,” Ken H. Johnson, Ph.D., a real estate economist in FAU’s College of Business, said, “but consumers are still buying and selling, and that activity is keeping prices elevated in a lot of metro areas.”
The Beracha and Johnson Index does not consider historical market prices when showing rankings of value versus list price, according to FAU. However, even the researchers behind the Index say the prices in Florida will likely stay higher, as other markets decline.
FAU and FIU said in December that Florida markets like North Port and Cape Coral were starting to go down in price for the first time since their markets peaked, but that Florida prices remained elevated.
“It is hard to say where prices will go from here in Florida,” said Eli Beracha, Ph.D., of FIU’s Hollo School of Real Estate. “But it seems most likely that Florida housing markets will fare better than most other markets across the country due to the persistent shortage of homes for sale and the pace at which people are relocating to the state.”
While the real estate trends remain in flux, AgentStory, a tech real estate company, has focused on measuring how many real estate agents are actively engaged in the market.
Their proprietary end-of-year data for 2022 showed fewer agents were active at the end of 2022 than at the end of 2021, down roughly 6.5% in the Tampa area. Additionally, AgentStory said quarter-to-quarter, the data tells a different story than just looking at changes year-over-year.
While companies like Zillow or Redfin measure the market by list price and mortgage rates, AgentStory bases their analysis on multiple listing service data instead. Their data is also made up of averages rather than medians.
“According to the Tampa report, in Q4 2022, there were 2188 active agents and in Q4 2021 there were 2339. So the difference is -6.5%,” AgentStory told WFLA.com. “The annual comparison hides the fact that the first half of 2022 was strong and then dropped.”
Looking at listing data, AgentStory reported that Tampa area homes spent twice as long on the market in Q4 2022, compared to Q4 2021, for 34 days on the market compared to 17 days the year before.
Turning to the housing market more broadly, the reported rate for a 30-year-fixed rate mortgage is currently 6.15%, according to Freddie Mac, a federally-backed mortgage company. Freddie Mac reports the rates every Thursday. The new rate reported Thursday is the second week in a row with a decrease in level.
“As inflation continues to moderate, mortgage rates declined again this week,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said. “Rates are at their lowest level since September of last year, boosting both homebuyer demand and homebuilder sentiment. Declining rates are providing a much-needed boost to the housing market, but the supply of homes remains a persistent concern.”
© 2023 WFLA, Nexstar Broadcasting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Real Estate Trends: What’s the 2023 Fla. Outlook?
Florida Realtors chief economist: Expect Fla. housing to return to a more “traditional” market like in 2018-2019 “as supply and demand become more balanced.”
ORLANDO, Fla. – What should consumers, Realtors® and policymakers expect when it comes to Florida real estate over the next year? After the unexpectedly strong years of 2020 and 2021 despite an ongoing pandemic, Florida’s housing sector in 2022 was affected by rapidly rising inflation and higher mortgage interest rates, Florida Realtors® Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor told nearly 500 Realtors during the 2023 Florida Real Estate Trends summit last Thursday.
“Now, we expect the state’s residential real estate market to return to a more typical pace,” he said. “I believe 2023 will look more like the ‘traditional’ housing market years of 2018-2019 in Florida as supply and demand become more balanced.”
The event was part of this year’s Florida Realtors’ Mid-Winter Business Meetings at the Renaissance SeaWorld Orlando. In addition to O’Connor, the summit featured John Leer, chief economist of Morning Consult, which uses high-frequency survey data to capture insights into consumer attitudes and concerns. Leer leads global economic research and oversees the firm’s economic data collection, validation and analysis. He is an authority on the effects of consumer preference, expectations and experiences on purchasing patterns, prices and employment.
It also included a panel of Realtors who use Florida Realtors’ SunStats resource regularly, sharing how it helps them in their business. Panelists were Peter West, broker/managing partner, Bishop West Real Estate; Kara Wisely, broker associate, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Florida Realty; and John J. Adams, president, Adams, Cameron and Co., Realtors. Jennifer Warner, Florida Realtors economist and director of economic development, served as the moderator.
Dr. Brad O’Connor, Florida Realtors chief economist
One major question currently on the minds of real estate professionals, homebuyers, home sellers and others: Is a price correction on the way?
“Prices are determined by both demand and supply,” O’Connor said. “Falling demand is only one ingredient needed for a large correction; we also need a flood of supply. In the last housing cycle, this came from overbuilding and foreclosures. And it’s unlikely that we’re going to see a flood of newly built homes on the market for several reasons. First, fewer homebuilders currently exist than in years past; builders are more conservative when it comes to taking on new builds; and home builds are taking longer to complete. Supply is also being affected by homeowners who don’t want to list their house and buy a different one because they’re likely to have to pay more on the next home due to higher mortgage interest rates.
“So it’s true some owners are feeling ‘locked-in’ to their current home and current mortgage rate, but it’s not all homeowners. We are seeing gains in inventory (active listings) and closed sales are continuing. And we are going to see some relaxing or easing in prices – but we’re not going to see a great drop unless or until we see more supply available.”
According to O’Connor, inflation will continue to be a factor in 2023, though recent economic news shows the Federal Reserve’s action to fight inflation appears to be having a positive effect. Buyer demand in Florida in the coming months will continue to be challenged by insurance costs, mortgage rates – especially if rates start rising again to 7% or higher – and ongoing economic uncertainty that erodes consumer confidence.
“Mortgage rates will come down, but it’s all dependent on different factors,” he said. “All of the current forecasts on existing home sales in 2023 rely on where the 30-year mortgage rate is going to be, and that’s in flux.
Recent 2023 forecasts for U.S. existing home sales compared year-over-year to 2022 include:
- National Association of Realtors® (12/13/22): Existing home sales fall 7.0% Y/Y in 2023
- Fannie Mae (12/12/22): Existing home sales fall 21.1% Y/Y in 2023
- Mortgage Bankers Association (12/19/22): Existing home sales fall 13.7% Y/Y in 2023
- Redfin (12/6/22): Existing home sales fall 16.0% Y/Y in 2023
- Realtor.com (11/30/22): Existing home sales fall 14.1% Y/Y in 2023
- National Association of Home Builders (1/4/23): Existing home sales fall 15.7% Y/Y in 2023
O’Connor said, “In the first half of this year, I feel confident that we’re going to see home prices flatten out on average, and I think sales will kind of hug below the line of 2018 (closed existing home sales). I expect closed sales to hover a bit below the more usual pace of Florida home sales, such as what we saw in 2018. However, because home prices are much higher now than in 2018, we are still going to see a higher dollar volume of closed existing home sales, just not at the level of last year or in 2021 with dollar volume.”
Dr. John Leer, Morning Consult chief economist
How consumers are affected by the economy, inflation and other factors – or how they feel about what’s going on in the world around them – influences consumer confidence and factors into their buying decisions or saving habits, according to Dr. John Leer, chief economist for Morning Consult.
“In 2023, consumer confidence is starting to rise across most of the U.S. but remains far off from where it was a year ago,” he said. “It’s going to take a prolonged period of real wage growth and fairly stable policy outcomes for consumers to feel more comfortable and confident about the economy and their future. In December, consumers reported rising credit balances at the highest rates since tracking began. Research shows more consumers are finding it difficult to make ends meet at the end of the month, and the share of adults able to save each month continues to shrink.”
Leer pointed out this is a sign that consumers have been pushed to the brink and are having to pull back on spending as higher expenses erode their savings and sense of financial stability.
“While we’re seeing in the news that inflation is starting to cool, inflation is still impacting consumers,” he said. “They still feel and see that inflation is costing them more. Consumers are under financial stress and they’re trying to downsize their spending. Over the last two months, what we’re seeing is the outlook for the U.S. economy has really deteriorated, particularly among consumer fronts. Consumers have exhausted their sources of spending. We expect to see consumers continue to draw back from spending as small business and other sectors reduce hiring, expenditures and otherwise also contract.”
However, Leer also noted that housing and homeownership remain a top priority for many consumers.
“Housing prices are beginning to flatten but continue to resist declines as buyer interest perks up,” he said. “Buyers are still waiting in the wings, interested in purchasing a home as soon as they’re able to do so financially. We continue to see that homeownership remains a strong goal for consumers, particularly for young adults looking to start a family and who feel secure in their jobs and ready for that next transition.”
© 2023 Florida Realtors®
Interest Rates, Inflation Impact Fla.’s 2022 Housing Market
January 20, 2023
Florida Realtors data: But for-sale inventory rose and median sales prices up year-over-year. Single-family homes up 15.7% to $402,500; condos up 21.6% to $306,500.
ORLANDO, Fla. – As 2022 ended, Florida’s housing market looked similar to the more traditional market years prior to the pandemic in terms of total closed sales, though it fell short in the year-to-year compared to the unusually strong 2021 sales. The statewide inventory of for-sale existing homes and condo properties showed gains while statewide median sales prices continued to rise year-over-year, despite headwinds from inflation and higher interest rates, according to the latest housing data released by Florida Realtors®.
Year End 2022
Florida Realtors® Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor pointed out that in 2021, Florida’s housing market was “on a sugar high. Overall, closed sales in 2022 were pretty good when you look at the more ‘traditional’ housing market years of 2018 and 2019.”
At the end of 2022, statewide closed sales of existing single-family homes totaled 287,352, down 18% compared to the 2021 year-end level, according to data from Florida Realtors’ research department in partnership with local Realtor boards/associations. Closed sales may occur from 30- to 90-plus days after sales contracts are written.
The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes at year’s end was $402,500, up 15.7% from the previous year. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.
Looking at Florida’s year-to-year comparison for sales of condo-townhouses, a total of 125,494 units sold statewide in 2022, down 21.7% compared to 2021. The statewide median price for condo-townhouse properties at the end of the year was $306,500, up 21.6% from the previous year.
Statewide, the median percentage of the original listing price received by sellers at the end of 2022 continued at about the same level year-over-year in both property type categories at 100% for single-family existing homes and at 99.9% for condo and townhouse units.
According to Florida Realtors’ data, at the end of 2022, in December 2022 and also in 4Q 2022, inventory (active listings) for single-family homes stood at a 2.7-months’ supply, while inventory for condo-townhouse properties was at a 2.8-months’ supply.
“The good news is, we have a lot more inventory than what we had over the pandemic years,” O’Connor said. “Active listings of single-family existing homes more than doubled from a 1-month supply at the end of 2021 to a 2.7-months’ supply at the end of 2022. If we get a little relief in mortgage rates, then all the other factors are still there that make Florida appealing and a strong draw for buyer demand.”
December 2022
In December, closed sales of single-family homes statewide totaled 19,158, down 36.1% from December 2021, while existing condo-townhouse sales totaled 7,677, down 40% year-over-year, according to Florida Realtors’ data.
The statewide median sales prices for both existing single-family homes and condo-townhouse properties rose year-over-year in December 2022. The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes was $395,000, up 5.6% from the previous year. Meanwhile, the statewide median price for condo-townhouse units was $310,000, up 8.8% over the year-ago figure.
4Q 2022
Statewide closed sales of existing single-family homes totaled 57,004 in the fourth quarter of 2022, down 33.1% compared to the previous-year figure, according to Florida Realtors’ data. The statewide median sales price for existing single-family homes for 4Q 2022 was $400,000, up 9.6% from 4Q 2021.
Looking at Florida’s year-to-year comparison for sales of condo-townhouses in 4Q 2022, a total of 23,117 units sold statewide, down 35.5% from the same quarter in 2021. The statewide median price for condo-townhouse properties for the quarter was $310,000, up 14% over the previous year.
Looking ahead in 2023, Chief Economist O’Connor said mortgage rates – and the Federal Reserve’s action on interest rates as it continues to fight inflation – will influence ongoing market conditions.
He said, “Over the next six months, if mortgage rates don’t rise and return to 7%, that would help encourage buyers – and I think we’ll see mortgage rates stay just above 6% for a while. If we keep seeing more good news on the economic front, then I think we’ll see the housing market respond. Buyer demand is there, perhaps waiting on easing home prices, more supply and other factors.”
To see the full statewide housing activity reports, go to the Florida Realtors’ Newsroom and look under Latest Releases or download the December, 4Q or Year End 2022 data report PDFs under Market Data on the site.
© 2023 Florida Realtors®
S. Fla. in 2023: What Can Buyers, Sellers Expect?
Home prices will likely remain high and even increase, but at a much slower pace. The year will probably see fewer sales and a growing inventory of for-sale homes.
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – After an unexpected slowdown in the South Florida housing market this year, what does 2023 hold for buyers and sellers? The South Florida Sun Sentinel talked to the experts on what people can expect in the coming year with mortgage rates, if buyers will have more choices, if homes might be easier to get and if prices will ever come down.
Here’s what they say.
Home prices remain high, but growth will be slower
Experts believe that for the most part, home prices in South Florida will increase, but at a slower pace as the market continues to stabilize after the record two years it had during its pandemic boom.
“I expect prices will be stable, maybe slightly downward over the first few months of the year. Toward the second part of the year, interest rates should be easing and convincing some buyers to return to the market, so prices will go back up,” said Eli Beracha, director of Florida International University’s Hollo School of Real Estate. “We’re probably looking at a moderate price appreciation overall.”
It’s hard to put an exact number on how much prices will appreciate. The current median sale price for a single-family home in the tri-county area is about $475,000, a 12% increase from the year before, according to data from Redfin.
Realtor.com predicts that home prices in South Florida will grow by about 3.4% next year, while CoreLogic suggests that the average price growth for single-family homes will be about 8%. Zillow predicts that home prices will grow about 1% next year.
Affordability will remain an issue for many buyers as a lack of available land to build on and demand for out-of-state buyers will help keep prices high.
“The prices of single-family homes is going to continue to appreciate in 2023 because of the amount of people moving here and the limited inventory for sale,” said Craig Studnicky, co-founder and CEO of ISG WORLD and RelatedISG Realty. “Prior to COVID, I maybe sold to one California buyer a year, now we are doing about two a week. It’s the same with New York; the northeast is shrinking.”
Where will mortgage rates go?
Mortgage rates remain a key issue for both buyers and sellers, as both groups wait to see how mortgage rates fare in the new year.
Rates have started to drop down from the record highs of upward of 7% in the fall as the Federal Reserve signaled that it might take a less aggressive approach in trying to cool inflation. The average on the 30-year rate recently dipped to 6.27%, according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac.
Forecasts vary on where mortgage rates might be: A Freddie Mac forecast put mortgage rates at around 6% for most of the year, still almost double than the pandemic lows that drew in a lot of buyers. The higher mortgages are, the less buying power buyers have, especially ones purchasing their first home.
“It’s been challenging with prices going up, and rates have reduced the amount they can look at to buy a home,” said Craig Garcia, Capital Partners Mortgage. “It’s definitely easier because there is less competition and more chances for a buyer to negotiate with sellers for some type of concession.”
It’s hard to predict exactly where rates might be, but there are two key indicators to watch for, Garcia said.
“It’s really two pieces of the puzzle that are the most important – the economic growth situation and the inflation,” he said. “If the economy looks like it’s strong and inflation is still not under control, we will likely have higher rates, and rates will continue to climb.”
More homes, less sales
Inventory levels are also expected to rise in the new year, giving buyers a little bit more flexibility in what they can choose from and building on the slight increase of homes coming to the market over the past few months.
There could be a 10% increase in inventory, noted Patty DaSilva, broker with Green Realty Properties in Cooper City, leading to less competition among buyers.
“Now we are seeing a few multiple-offer situations, or maybe a buyer offering $5,000 over asking,” DaSilva said. “It’s not like what we were seeing before where a buyer might offer $175,000 over asking or a property had 39 offers. It’s much more reasonable and properties have to be priced correctly. “
On the flip side, it’s likely that there will be fewer overall transactions in the beginning of the year, mainly due to high mortgage rates keeping homeowners in their current homes.
“Interest rates are still high and those who don’t have to move won’t because they’ll end up paying off a house at a lower interest rate and buying at a higher one,” Beracha said.
New projects on the market
Despite some homes coming to the market, overall supply will still be constrained, as supply chain issues, uncertainty about interest rates, and the cost of creating will put a damper on new projects from developers.
“I think you are going to see a slow number of starts in construction in the new year,” said Ignacio Diaz, developer with Group P6. “The overall financial costs are very high, so it’s a lot of headwind to start new projects.”
A few factors are making it more difficult to get new projects off the ground: the lack of available land in South Florida, the uncertainty of where interest rates will be and how it affects construction loans, and the cost of insurance.
“Because the interest-rate environment has changed drastically, some of the projects, they just don’t work with the current rate of construction loans as well as the valuation of these projects,” said Harvey Hernandez of Newgard Development Group.
Developers expect that many projects will be shelved and re-evaluated in 2024 and 2025. This will keep upward pressures on prices, and contribute further to the severe lack of housing in the area.
“A lot of projects are going to be shelved in the hopes that interest rates will come down,” said Chad Moss with MFO Worldwide.
© 2022 South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Visit sun-sentinel.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
Forbes: Top 10 Best-Places-to-Live Fla. Metros
Miami was “most vibrant” and Orlando “most prominent,” but Tampa ranked No. 1 on the top-10 list as “a destination for people looking to change up their scene.”
TAMPA, Fla. – A new listing of the best places to live in Florida by Forbes Advisor put Tampa at No. 1. Citing positive attractions for young adults and families, as well as “pristine beaches,” Tampa was the best place to live in the Sunshine State.
The Forbes analysis of which cities were Florida’s best examined things to do, median home prices, median salaries, crime levels, and population sizes, to name a few.
While Miami was named the “most vibrant” and Orlando was “most prominent,” according to Forbes, Tampa had the right mix of museums, sports teams, job opportunities, tourism, and a commitment to the arts.
The area has also seen a big move for businesses coming to the area, making it more of a destination for those looking to change up their scene. In addition to the new businesses and new job opportunities, Tampa is also in a drivable zone to get to other popular cities with different attractions, like Orlando or Miami.
“Tampa has also experienced an influx of employers across several industries ranging from advanced manufacturing to financial services and life sciences. Tourism and MacDill Air Force Base also play a pivotal role,” Forbes said. “While Tampa offers everything you need for daily life, Orlando is also a two-hour drive and Miami is only four hours away.”
While home values are relatively higher than some of the other cities on the list, Tampa’s median income of $55,600 and low unemployment rate put it above places like Gainesville, Orlando, and even Miami. Compared to Tampa, Miami had a lower median income and higher median home prices, in addition to a higher cost for monthly expenses.
Forbes Advisor top 10 for Florida’s best places to live
- Tampa
- Jacksonville
- Gainesville
- Cape Coral
- Orlando
- Miami
- Melbourne
- Sarasota
- Tallahassee
- Pensacola
© 1998-2023 WKRG, Nexstar Broadcasting, Inc. All rights reserved.
New Year’s Resolution: Invest in Real Estate
December 20, 2022
Stocks mainly pay when they appreciate and bonds via coupons, but real estate offers five profit centers, such as income, tax savings and principal paydown.
NEW YORK – If you invest in stocks or bonds, you may be more accustomed to one way of getting paid. For stocks, typically you’ll only get paid from stock price appreciation. For bonds, you’ll typically only get paid from the coupon payments (similar to net rental income of rental properties).
Since 2000, government bond yields have averaged 2-4%, while corporate bonds have averaged 4-6%. Bonds can also appreciate and depreciate in price if the investor sells before maturity.
In comparison, let’s take a look at the five profit centers in real estate investing and how they can impact your long-term investment strategy:
- Net rental income: This is the money you make after all expenses (mortgage, insurance, property management fees) are deducted from your monthly rental income.
- Tax savings: When you invest in real estate, you can take advantage of numerous tax deductions and write-offs. This can help you save a lot of money come tax time!
- Principal paydown: Every month, a portion of your mortgage payment goes towards paying down your balance, paid by your renter. This is a great way to build equity in your property and reduce your overall mortgage balance.
- Home price appreciation: Over time, the value of your property is likely to increase. This can provide you with a nice return on investment when you refinance or sell the property. Out of all of the profit centers, home price appreciation will have the greatest impact on return on investment over a full market cycle (10-20 years.)
- Inflation hedging: When inflation goes up, the prices of goods and services also increase. But since your mortgage payments remain the same, your purchasing power actually goes up! This makes real estate a great hedge against inflationary pressures.
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Report: Florida Will Need 570K Housing Units by 2030
The great weather, paired with the "work-from-anywhere" dynamic brought about by the pandemic, continues to bring more people to the Sunshine State, according to the FAA.
The Florida Apartment Association (FAA) has launched a new website, BuildFlorida2030.com, that tracks the state's growing housing needs and includes a dashboard that tracks the percentage of renters, as well as a breakdown of land and construction costs by county.
"I think the big key takeaway is that Florida ... has been growing at a tremendous rate over the past decade or so," said Amanda White with the FAA. "Between 2010 and 2020 for example, the state grew by 15%, which amounts to 2.7 million people, (and) rank(s) second overall (in-state growth) after Texas."
According to the data, the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro area has a shortage of 10,000 apartment units.
By 2030, Florida's population is projected to grow by 3.2 million, which means the state needs 570,000 housing units by then.
“I think the pandemic really changed the dynamic and people are able to work from anywhere and I think a lot of states in the Sunbelt like Florida that have great weather, beautiful, natural resources and beaches and things of that nature, I think it really attracted folks to live where they want to live,” White said.
Source: "Florida will need 500K housing units by 2030 with growing population, experts say," ClickOrlando.com
Fla. Has 5 of Top 10 Move-To Metros in U.S.
Fla. metros remain popular with outside-the-city homebuyers. In a 3Q top-state popularity contest, Fla. has 5 metros in the top 10 and Calif. has 2.
SEATTLE – About one in four (24.1%) U.S. homebuyers considered moving to a different metro area in third quarter of 2022, according to a report from Redfin, and five of the popular metros in the top 10 were in Florida.
Top U.S. metro areas by inflow in 3Q
- Sacramento, California: Top origin metro, San Francisco. Top out-of-state origin: Chicago
- Las Vega, Nevada: Top origin metro, Los Angeles. Top out-of-state origin: Los Angeles
- Miami: Top origin metro, New York. Top out-of-state origin: New York
- San Diego, California: Top origin metro, Los Angeles. Top out-of-state origin: Chicago
- Tampa: Top origin metro, New York. Top out-of-state origin: New York
- Phoenix, Arizona: Top origin metro, Los Angeles. Top out-of-state origin: Los Angeles
- Cape Coral, Florida: Top origin metro, Chicago. Top out-of-state origin: Chicago
- North Port-Sarasota, Florida: Top origin metro, Chicago. Top out-of-state origin: Chicago
- Dallas, Texas: Top origin metro, Los Angeles. Top out-of-state origin: Los Angeles
- Orlando, Florida: Top origin metro, New York. Top out-of-state origin: New York
The third quarter results were similar to the second quarter, according to the study, but up from 2019 when 18% of home shoppers searched for housing in a different metro area.
The U.S. housing market cooled significantly during the second half of 2022, but of the people still buying homes, an unprecedented portion are relocating to new metros. Many are seeking relative affordability as mortgage rates hover around 7% and persistently high home prices make expensive parts of the country even more expensive.
Overall, affordable Sun Belt metros are most popular with relocating homebuyers, largely because they can get more home for less money. In Las Vegas, for instance, the typical home cost $410,000 in October, roughly half the price of the typical home in Los Angeles ($823,000) – the most common origin for people moving there.
Buyers leaving expensive West Coast, East Coast cities
More homebuyers looked to leave San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Washington, D.C. and Boston than other major metros, determined by net outflow – a measure of how many more Redfin.com users looked to leave an area than move in.
In general, homebuyers are leaving expensive coastal job centers more than other places – a trend that started before the pandemic and picked up steam due to remote work and rising housing costs – and they commonly head to more affordable regions.
© 2022 Florida Realtors®
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Reprinted with permission. Florida Realtors®. All rights reserved.